Data released Tuesday by freight audit and payment provider U.S. Bank showed a trucking industry continuing to battle cyclical and structural headwinds. The U.S. freight market continued its downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, shipment volumes fell 4.7% from the previous quarter, marking the 10th consecutive quarterly decline. Spending by shippers also decreased, albeit at a slower rate of 2.2%.
“It’s clear there are both cyclical and structural challenges remaining as we look for a truck freight market reboot,” said Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations. “For instance, factory output softness – which has a disproportionate impact on truck freight volumes – is currently weighing heavily on our industry.”
Looking at cyclical impacts, the persistent softness in the manufacturing sector played a large role in the freight market’s continued softness. Total factory output declined between 0.3% and 0.6% from the third quarter and 0.5% to 0.9% year over year. Even such modest decreases have a disproportionate impact on truck freight volumes.
The report adds: “U.S. factory output has a disproportionate impact on truck freight volumes compared with other economic sectors. For example, a finished product that is imported into the U.S. via cargo ship for the retail sector, depending on the product and the specific supply chain, might be transported via truck only one to three times before consumer purchase.”