Signs that a freight recovery may be taking shape continue to surface, said trucking executives on the investor conference circuit this week. The overall sentiment is that the truckload industry is no longer in a recession and that normal seasonal trends have returned, but no one is ready to commit to when a meaningful positive inflection will occur.
“We know we’re coming off the bottom of the market,” Drew Wilkerson, CEO at truck broker RXO (NYSE: RXO), told investors at Citi’s 2025 Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference in Miami on Wednesday. “You are starting to see the signs of a market that’s shifting. The thing that’s not known is, what’s the pace of the recovery?”
He cited a recent run in TL spot rates and noted that contract rates have turned positive. He also talked about the increase in carrier tender rejections and said internal data shows load-to-truck ratios have nearly doubled year over year.
RXO is calling for contract rates to increase y/y by low- to mid-single digits this year. The company’s TL revenue per load is up y/y by a low-single-digit percentage to start the year after being flat in the fourth quarter.